Deep Dive: WW3?

🌅 Today’s Topics

Good Morning, today we’re delving into:

• Deep Dive: Why Taiwan is always in the news?

• Visual: Chile is how big!?

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Why Is Taiwan Always In The News?

Taiwan is a bit of an enigma. It’s less than half the size of Ireland, yet geopolitically holds more significance than countries 10x its size.

Why?

A few weeks ago I spoke about 2024 being a great year for Democracy, and that one of the countries with an election this year was Taiwan. Well, the election happened and a guy called William Lai Ching-te won, which is notable as he is a staunch advocate for Taiwanese independence from China. His win ruffled the feathers of the leaders in neighbouring China (a bit of an understatement).  

As we all know there are feuds between countries all over the world - India and Pakistan, North and South Korea, Sudan and Sudan (civil war) - yet few get as much international attention as that of Taiwan and China when not a single shot has been fired.

The History

To understand, we must first look into the past - don’t worry this won’t be a boring history lesson.

After WW2, China underwent a civil war that culminated in the split of the country into two separate entities. The People's Republic of China was governed by the Chinese Communist Party - under the famous Chairman Mao - who claimed mainland China. Meanwhile, the Republic of China (the names can get a bit confusing) retreated to Taiwan.

This schism set the stage for decades of political tension and strategic manoeuvring - both trying to get one over on the other.

As the decades rolled on the Chinese Government continued to hold the firm belief that Taiwan was still part of mainland China and not, in fact, a separate nation.

Taiwan could see that their significantly larger and more aggressive neighbour was an existential threat to their survival, so they sought to create allegiances with the West. By adopting the Western ideologies of free market capitalism and liberal democracy, they invited the likes of France, Germany and the UK into their country for trade and other partnerships, becoming dependent on each other (just how much we’ll get onto later).

While they become close with many other Western nations their alliance with the United States reached another level.

Why does Taiwan matter so much?

From a US perspective

What is known as the cross-strait (basically the bit of water between Taiwan and China) is a shipping Lane that roughly 50% of the world's goods flow through every year, and a huge quantity of imports that the United States requires for its continued to development go through this channel.

The US needs this to stay open and more specifically not be controlled by China.

Moreover, Taiwan is the world's biggest producer of semiconductors (computer chips) which, you may not realise, power almost everything you do in your life. Obviously, things like your phone or your TV,  but less obvious things like your microwave, the sensors in your car, or MRI scanners in hospitals are all powered by computer chips that come out of Taiwan.

The ongoing ‘AI Revolution’ is powered by these computer chips, so the stakes are only getting higher.

If Taiwan falls into Chinese hands they would essentially own the AI revolution.

From a Chinese Perspective

Imagine there was an Island just off the coast of New York that used to be part of the US and now was a strategic ally with China; hosting their fighter jets, aircraft craft carriers and thousands of troops. The US government would be outraged that the Chinese had a foothold so near their mainland.

This is exactly how the Chinese government feel. From every perspective, it’s massively exposing and one they would much rather not have to deal with.

So what’s the issue right now?

So now I've laid out why Taiwan is strategically important to the West - specifically the United States, and also how the Chinese government continue to view it as a part of China. You might see where the conflict has arisen…

Fundamentally, the Chinese government are set on what they would call reintegrating but what almost everyone else would call invading Taiwan to re-establish their rule there and make the two countries one again. 

The United States cannot let this happen for all the reasons stated above. 

You can see the impasse policymakers are up against.

If you look at the bigger picture this conflict is really representative of a larger conflict brewing between the ascending China and the wavering United States. 

If China decides to invade Taiwan, which looks increasingly likely given their ever-rising military incursions, what does the United States do?

If they draw a line in the sand and declare that they will defend Taiwan with their own troops, what happens when China inevitably cross this line? Do they actually put their troops, fighter jets, and aircraft carriers in between China’s invading military and Taiwan, ostensibly declaring war on China?

This would no doubt have dire consequences for the entire world. The UK, France, Germany, Canada, Israel and others would be summoned to come to the United States’ aid. Meanwhile, China would strategically partner with Russia, Iran and maybe even North Korea. A very real shot at WW3.

You can see how a small island in the Indo-Pacific has geopolitical implications about as big as can be.

Visual: Chile is how big!?

It’s kinda easy to think that maps show countries as their real size, but this isn’t true. To make spherical globes, countries’ sizes are significantly deformed.

This epic website allows you to drag countries over one another to see their real size (take a look at how big Russia really is…)

Just look how big Chile is!